|
|
The Mathematics of GamblingLearn more about probability so that you are better able to make informed choices. |
The coin is biased. It has a 60% chance of landing heads up and a 40% chance of landing tails up. You have the following amount of money to play with:
Place your bet using the panel below.
Type the amount of your wager below.
£
Which side of the coin will you bet on?
|
|
||
Transum.orgThis web site contains over a thousand free mathematical activities for teachers and pupils. Click here to go to the main page which links to all of the resources available. Please contact me if you have any suggestions or questions.
|
More Activities: |
|
|
Mathematicians are not the people who find Maths easy; they are the people who enjoy how mystifying, puzzling and hard it is. Are you a mathematician? Comment recorded on the 2 May 'Starter of the Day' page by Angela Lowry, : "I think these are great! So useful and handy, the children love them. Comment recorded on the 28 May 'Starter of the Day' page by L Smith, Colwyn Bay: "An absolutely brilliant resource. Only recently been discovered but is used daily with all my classes. It is particularly useful when things can be saved for further use. Thank you!" |
Each month a newsletter is published containing details of the new additions to the Transum website and a new puzzle of the month. The newsletter is then duplicated as a podcast which is available on the major delivery networks. You can listen to the podcast while you are commuting, exercising or relaxing. Transum breaking news is available on Twitter @Transum and if that's not enough there is also a Transum Facebook page. |
|
Featured ActivityTriangle Solver This simple calculator will work out the lengths of the sides and the size of the angles of any triangle given thee particular pieces of information. |
Numeracy"Numeracy is a proficiency which is developed mainly in Mathematics but also in other subjects. It is more than an ability to do basic arithmetic. It involves developing confidence and competence with numbers and measures. It requires understanding of the number system, a repertoire of mathematical techniques, and an inclination and ability to solve quantitative or spatial problems in a range of contexts. Numeracy also demands understanding of the ways in which data are gathered by counting and measuring, and presented in graphs, diagrams, charts and tables." Secondary National Strategy, Mathematics at key stage 3 |
|
Go MathsLearning and understanding Mathematics, at every level, requires learner engagement. Mathematics is not a spectator sport. Sometimes traditional teaching fails to actively involve students. One way to address the problem is through the use of interactive activities and this web site provides many of those. The Go Maths main page links to more activities designed for students in upper Secondary/High school. | ||
Teachers | ||
|
If you found this activity useful don't forget to record it in your scheme of work or learning management system. The short URL, ready to be copied and pasted, is as follows: |
Alternatively, if you use Google Classroom, all you have to do is click on the green icon below in order to add this activity to one of your classes. |
It may be worth remembering that if Transum.org should go offline for whatever reason, there are mirror site at Transum.info that contains most of the resources that are available here on Transum.org. When planning to use technology in your lesson always have a plan B! |
|
Do you have any comments? It is always useful to receive feedback and helps make this free resource even more useful for those learning Mathematics anywhere in the world. Click here to enter your comments. |
||
© Transum Mathematics :: This activity can be found online at:
www.Transum.org/go/?Num=810
This activity represents an experiment conducted to test people's understanding of probability by two investment fund managers.
The Economist reported that Victor Haghani and Rich Dewey invited 61 people, a combination of college-age students in finance and economics and some young professionals at finance firms (including 14 who worked for fund managers), to take a test. They were each given a stake of $25 and then asked to bet on a coin that would land heads 60% of the time. The prizes were real, although capped at $250.
Remarkably, 28% of the participants went bust, and the average payout was just $91. Only 21% of the participants reached the maximum. 18 of the 61 participants bet everything on one toss, while two-thirds gambled on tails at some stage in the experiment. Neither approach is in the least bit optimal.
The best strategy was devised by J. L. Kelly, Jr, a researcher at Bell Labs, in 1956. The idea of this simulation is for players to work towards finding what this best strategy might be. Good luck.
Just for fun, if you accumulate over £1000 you will be awarded with a trophy for being skillful and lucky.
Close
Answers to this exercise are available lower down this page when you are logged in to your Transum account. If you don’t yet have a Transum subscription one can be very quickly set up if you are a teacher, tutor or parent.
Exam Style Questions - A collection of problems in the style of GCSE or IB/A-level exam paper questions (worked solutions are available for Transum subscribers).
More on probability including lesson Starters, visual aids, investigations and self-marking exercises.
Did you know that Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat invented probability theory in 1654 to solve a gambling problem?
WARNING: In the real world commercial gambling operations have a much smaller change of you winning money than this simulation. For more information about the dangers of gambling see RaisingChildren.net.
Transum,
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
"The International Baccalaureate syllabus document suggests topics for discussion such as 'can calculation of gambling probabilities be considered an ethical application of mathematics?' and 'should mathematicians be held responsible for unethical applications of their work?'."
Sheila Camp,
Saturday, July 17, 2021
"AddictionResouce.net is a company dedicated to helping those who struggle with addiction and co-occurring mental health conditions. They provide resources for those in need as well as information on how to help loved ones struggling with these issues. Their goal is to make the world a better place by making it easier for everyone to talk about their struggles without fear of judgment or stigma on addiction.
There is an informational guide at https://www.addictionresource.net/behavioral-addictions/gambling/ "
Helen, Sydney
Friday, September 16, 2022
"This was good until my students discovered "spamming the button" like crazy caused them win thousands of pounds.
[Transum: Thanks for the feedback Helen. By "spamming the button" do you mean clicking the button repeatedly very quickly? I have tried that and the only affect it has is to speed up the process. It doesn't change the probabilities at all]"