# Exam-Style Question on Probability

## A mathematics exam-style question with a worked solution that can be revealed gradually

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Question id: 162. This question is similar to one that appeared on a GCSE Higher paper (specimen) for 2017. The use of a calculator is not allowed.

Aran, Betsy and Connor collect data about which way up a drawing pin will land if dropped from a fixed height. Here are their results.

 Pin up Pin down Total Aran 24 33 57 Betsy 22 33 55 Connor 86 102 188

Aran thinks "As a drawing pin can only land with its pin up or with its pin down so the probability of a drawing pin landing pin up is 0.5"

(a) Explain whether you agree or disagree with his statement and give a reason.

(b) Connor's results give the best estimate of the probability of a pin landing pin up. Explain why.

(c) Two pins are dropped. Estimate the probability that both pins land pin down.

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There is a related activity called Pin Drop.

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